Discovery log
Big Tech earnings week is in full swing while Money20/20 hallway chatter is still buzzing about rate cuts.
OC morning; rates sheet open; Bloomberg yield curve flashing on the side monitor.
This note captures how the latest rate move, earnings beats, and deal flow change the funding assumptions we’re running in healthcare fintech.
Two things can be true at once. The Fed cut rates again and markets cheered. The real economy is flashing stress. The final October stretch made that tension explicit.
Macro signals: easing policy, tighter funding
- The Fed’s second cut took the target to 3.75%-4% and arrived with a promise to halt quantitative tightening. Powell stayed hawkish. Two-year yields jumped past 3.6%.
- Overseas, the FTSE 100 closed at a fifth straight record while the pound slid to its weakest level versus the euro since 2023. Global capital is funding in stronger currencies.
- Commodities sent the same message. Copper hit a record high on supply fears. Gold bounced after a four-day slide. Miners issued equity at the fastest pace since 2013.
Big Tech earnings: AI narrative meets cash reality
- Alphabet crossed $100B in quarterly revenue. Cloud drove 34% growth, and 70% of customers toggled AI tools. The backlog sits at $155B.
- Microsoft ate a $3.1B OpenAI charge and still posted 40% Azure growth. Investors recoiled at the multi-quarter CapEx guide needed to sustain demand.
- Meta beat on revenue and earnings, but a $15.9B tax hit tied to the new law plus a $70B AI CapEx plan cut the stock. AI scale demands cash and political oxygen.
- Nvidia’s market cap pierced $5T. Traders hedged Oracle’s debt load. Hardware suppliers are thriving while legacy enterprise vendors stare at debt-funded catch-up plans.
Capital rotation: where the money is moving
- Public wealth funds are redirecting. Saudi Arabia’s PIF is moving from real estate toward logistics, minerals, and AI. These plays need real infrastructure, not pitch decks.
- Structured products aimed at retail are booming again. Desks are selling downside to yield-hungry investors who believe the S&P 500’s $17T rally has more room. That is a late-cycle tell.
- Private credit is both under siege and on offense. Managers blasted critics after the First Brands default while European watchdogs scrutinized murky trades. Deals still print, but regulators are reading the term sheets.
- Corporate strategic moves continue. Shift4’s pending purchase of Worldline’s North America unit, Mastercard’s talks with Zerohash, and Modern Treasury’s Beam pickup show that payments remain a consolidation play.
What this means for healthcare and dental fintech
- Pricing discipline beats growth theater. Copper, logistics, and AI infrastructure all bid for capital this week. Investors will fund healthcare banking roadmaps that defend margin at higher funding costs.
- Structured product demand needs counter-narratives. Small practices are being pitched high-yield “safe” instruments. Our advisory layer has to explain liquidity risk, fee drag, and counterparties in plain language.
- Data infrastructure is back in vogue. ADP switched off the Fed’s feed. UK supervisors questioned nonbank lending. Resilience is a feature. Build telemetry, reconciliation, and reporting tools now.
- AI CapEx spillover will hit the edges. Hyperscalers expect partners to integrate new models without creating compliance drag. Pair AI-driven insights with bank-grade controls so sponsor diligence does not freeze launches.
Rate cuts make headlines. Liquidity still costs money. Every funding decision I make this quarter runs through the same filter: if capital costs one or two percent more than our deck assumed, do we still clear the hurdle? Healthcare fintech, dental banking, AI peers-let’s compare notes. Newport or Irvine coffee works.