Inflation ticked up to 2.9% YoY. The jobs benchmark got revised downward by about 911,000. Credit card charge-offs are sitting around 4.15%, delinquencies at 2.98%. I'm not planning for a smooth rate-cut cycle anymore. I'm planning for spread volatility and an uncertain rate path, which changes how I price everything from deposit products to working capital.
The deals landing this month tell a story. Klarna raised about $1.37B at a roughly $15B valuation. Public market appetite for payments models is selective but open, and Klarna's rebound signals that investors want scaled unit economics over growth slogans. Rainforest closed a $29M Series B for payments-as-a-service aimed at vertical SaaS (the platform-first motion keeps winning). Mazlo raised $4.6M for nonprofit finance, which is yet another niche vertical getting funded. OnePay added an MVNO through Gigs, bundling communications with finance for stickiness. And Pipe embedded working capital inside Uber Eats, putting credit where operators already live.
The policy tape is noisy. A federal judge temporarily blocked removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which matters for near-term FOMC continuity and rate-path expectations. Continued scrutiny of sponsor bank programs (Evolve's probe is ongoing) keeps third-party oversight and model risk on every exam sheet. If you run vertical programs, expect deeper evidence demands on monitoring, complaints, and dispute handling. Debit routing obligations and dual-network enablement keep surfacing. Zelle and Paze are expanding incumbent reach. Usury debates are flaring in SMB credit.
Mapping all this to healthcare fintech and dental banking: At 2.9% inflation with an uncertain rate path, assume stickier spreads and higher deposit beta for sophisticated practices. For vertical banking, that means pricing cards and working capital for volatility, not a smooth normalization. Debit economics matter more when credit re-prices. Practices skew to debit for co-pays and recurring payments, so Durbin-exempt routing and MCC hygiene (8021) remain first-order variables. Validate dual-network enablement at the BIN level, not in the sales deck. See Durbin Advantage for background.
On settlement: ACH plus 835 remittance fidelity still wins for reconciliation. Use RTP/FedNow for high-value timing moments (payroll, supplier crunches) where finality offsets cost. Run file-level tests and measure disputes, not press releases. More on that in RTP/FedNow Rails.
With sponsor scrutiny elevated, be exam-ready: show ERA/EFT-to-bank tie-outs, Reg E flow-charts, and model validations. Push controls to the edge (MCC gating, tokenization, velocity) and reconcile daily. The compliance work isn't a banner. It's the moat. See KYC/KYB and Compliance Costs for more.
Focus beats breadth. The unit economics of vertical payments work when you stay disciplined about which rails carry which flows and why. See Unit Economics and Deposits to Credit.